lake powell water level forecast 2022

Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. //-->, Printable Version 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? google_color_url = "426C95"; Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. Detailed Map of Powell Gas Prices on Lake In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . Last July, to protect the 3,525 buffer zone, Reclamation ordered emergency water releases from three reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. By Leia Larsen. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . //2006-10-04: news As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. //2006-10-04: news (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. This 2022 Plan is described above and available for review here: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. Click for . His freelance "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. Climate change also plays a part. google_ad_height = 600; Lake Powell is now at a historic low. . The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. The reservoir's levels rise after consistent rain or snowpack melt in the area. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; google_ad_height = 600; Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future 04:12 - Source: CNN In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. hb```)," An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. google_ad_width = 160; Much of that water. levels. Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. Credit: Alex Hager. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. Lake Mead's water levels . google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; We are 41% through the Water Year. SW Satellite Weather The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. CNN's Bill Weir has more. The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. 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