2022 election predictions

MORE: Here Are 11 Races to Watch in the 2023 Chicago Elections In the 19 th ward, which includes Beverly, Mount Greenwood and Morgan Park, Ald. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. nrakich: The two indicators I always look at are polls of the generic congressional ballot (in other words, polls that ask, Would you vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress?) and special election results (specifically, how much they deviate from a districts base partisanship). He ran for re-election to a second term, and was re-elected after receiving a majority of votes in . Democrats seem to be more excited than Republicans, a recent report by the Democratic data firm Catalist, polls of the generic congressional ballot, the lead in generic-ballot polling until December 2009, the generic-ballot polls were spot on in 2018, the House experienced a blue wave in 2018, but the Senate actually got redder, less than a dozen seats are really in play, attacking the Democratic Party for being too progressive or woke, highlighting the benefits of progressive policies, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. [14], In July 2021, D. Kempanna, president of the Karnataka State Contractors' Association wrote to Prime Minister Narendra Modi alleging large-scale corruption in the award and implementation of civil contracts in Karnataka. Two decades before it came true, the series predicted that Disney would buy Fox. So Im sure Republicans will try and use this to their advantage given their current emphasis on tackling cancel culture.. Biden won New Hampshire by 7 points last year! A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. After the election, coalition of Janata Dal (Secular) and Indian National Congress formed the state government, with H. D. Kumaraswamy becoming Chief Minister. 2022 Senate Election Predictions. These posters referred to the allegations that Bommai's BJP government took bribes in awarding public contracts and recruitments. And residents throughout the city say they are unsettled by a spike in robberies, muggings, carjackings and other property crimes, and they have placed the blame on Ms. Lightfoot. Given the standard error of about 10 seats for the House forecast and three seats for the Senate model, however, the safest conclusion would be that the balance of power in both chambers would probably be very close. .css-gk9meg{display:block;font-family:Lausanne,Arial,sans-serif;font-weight:normal;margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;padding-top:0.25rem;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}@media (any-hover: hover){.css-gk9meg:hover{color:link-hover;}}@media(max-width: 48rem){.css-gk9meg{font-size:1.125rem;line-height:1.15;margin-bottom:0.25rem;}}@media(min-width: 40.625rem){.css-gk9meg{font-size:1rem;line-height:1.2;margin-bottom:0.625rem;}}@media(min-width: 64rem){.css-gk9meg{font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.2;}}@media(min-width: 73.75rem){.css-gk9meg{font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.2;}}So, Which Band Inspired 'Daisy Jones & The Six'? She is facing her most serious competition from a tough-on-crime candidate, Paul Vallas, a former public schools executive who began attacking her record on public safety early in the campaign. Meanwhile, the ETG-Times Now poll indicated that the BJP would remain the largest party but with a substantial drawdown from its earlier tally of 36 to just 24 seats. By Julie Bosman. "Republicans are likely to gain upward of 15 House seats, and they have a good shot of taking full control of Congress." National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. [15], Contractor Santhosh Patil (40) who accused then-state cabinet minister K. S. Eshwarappa of harassing him for commissions committed suicide at Shambhavi Hotel in Udupi on 12 April 2022. Is there any reason to think that Republicans or Democrats hold an advantage here? While polls widely hint that voters should expect a red wave, some pundits still see a chance of Democrats at least maintaining Senate control. geoffrey.skelley: As the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, Biden and his team are clearly banking on an economic revival that will buoy his ratings and Democratic fortunes in the midterm. The Simpsons Predicted The Corona Virus!! sarah: What about the Senate? A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. Rather, as of May, Gallup finds presidential job approval and three other key national mood indicators well below the historical averages measured in past midterm election years. Daniel La Spata, who is facing three opponents in the first ward, including Procco Joe Moreno, the man he defeated for the seat in 2019. His Reply", https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/karnataka-congress-releases-10-point-manifesto-for-coastal-areas-ahead-of-2023-assembly-polls-2325183-2023-01-23, "JD(S) to launch Pancharatna Yatra today", "2023 Karnataka Elections: Will JD(S)' Outreach Make it Kingmaker Once Again? The area was battered during the pandemic and has yet to fully recover. Matthew O'Shea is facing a tough battle against . But this is a bit on the nose. Not sure which ward you live in? The Fed predicts core PCE inflation of 2.7 percent in 2022; the Congressional Budget Office predicts 2 percent. We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. However, 2022 is not shaping up to be an average year. The House and Senate races have both moved more in Republican's favor in the publication's most recent predictions: Republicans, for example, are easily favored to win the House, with FiveThirtyEight rating their chances at 84 percent to Democrats 16 a lead that jumped around 10 points in the last few weeks of October. Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats. Tripura Election Results 2022: The counting of votes is underway for Tripura's 60 legislative assembly seats and early trends have begun to emerge on Thursday.As per these trends, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party is leading on 20 seats and the newly-formed party, TIPRA Motha is moving ahead on 2 seats. On top of that, Republicans are already campaigning on the cost and magnitude of President Bidens policy plans to inspire a backlash from voters. November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. The pair presented respective cases for"a Republican sweep" or "a Democratic surprise" on Election Day. Shepard acknowledges that the Senate majority is within reach for both parties but says "the range of plausible outcomes now includes a sizable Republican majority: A sweep of the six 'toss up' races would give the GOP 54 seats.". During the polls, 89.90 per cent of 28.13 lakh voters exercised their franchise. Beyond this general tendency, however, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably. According to IndiaToday-MyAxis, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to win between 36-45 seats in the 60-member assembly by garnering 45 per cent of the popular vote. Just like in the mayoral election, if no candidate receives a majority of the votes in the Feb. 28 election, meaning 50% plus one additional vote, then the top two vote-getters would advance to a runoff, which will be held on April 4. "Unscientific, irrational, discriminatory and noncompliance norms are applied to only unaided private schools and huge corruption is in place," the letter read. [9][10], Tensions concerning the Belagavi border dispute intensified in early December 2022 as a delegation of Maharashtra politicians proposed to travel to Belagavi district to demand the merger of some villages in Karnataka with Maharashtra, with politicians from Maharashtra making provocative statements. This one is tricky and we don't want to say Gaga is reductive, but we will say that her 2012 cameo on The Simpsons bears a striking resemblance to her Super Bowl half time show from a couple years back. [7], Karnataka has 5.05 crore registered voters as of the updated final electoral rolls for 2023, which were released on Thursday, January 05, 2023. By Nate Silver Nov. 8, 2022, at. Whoever wins the mayoral election in Chicago will have the chance to shape downtown Chicago as it adapts to the effects of the pandemic. In the six U.S. House special elections that took place in 2021, Democrats overperformed . In the now famous episode "Bart to the Future," Lisa Simpson is president, which is not terribly hard to fathom. According to The Economist, Democrats win the majority in the Senate in 81 out of 100 simulations. Search our Site: Search for Your Local Elected Officials: . ; Republicans win the majority in the House in 67 out of . Nate Cohn, The New YorkTimes' chief political analyst, believes that the Republican's lead in the House is clear based on public polls, and the Democrats may be facing an increasingly tense battle for Senate. nrakich: Yeah, Democrats are obviously hoping they can buck the trend and point to exceptions like Republicans gaining seats in 2002 as evidence that its possible. Thats why the mayors election in Chicago on Tuesday is about more than Chicago. One plan introduced under the Lightfoot administration addresses the high vacancy rates for commercial space in the Loop, calling for older office buildings on LaSalle Street in the heart of Chicagos business district to be turned into apartments and condominiums, including affordable housing. As a result, "you're going to have people claiming that the election is stolen, once again.". The mayor also faces serious challenges from the liberal wing of the party, especially from Brandon Johnson, a Cook County commissioner endorsed by the liberal Chicago Teachers Union. [18], In order to "expose" the ruling BJP in Karnataka, the opposition Congress party has determined to make the Bitcoin scam an election issue in the 2023 elections. "The party appears to be highly competitive in the key Senate races, like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. And as we touched on earlier, Bidens overall approval rating will also make a big difference in Democrats midterm chances. In one of the most recent edition of The Simpsons Predicts the Future, someone has unearthed a clip that looks a lot like Senator Ted Cruz's latest debacle. alex: Im not sure if itll work, but there is a debate in political science right now about the extent to which race-based messaging reduces support for certain policy ideas. (The Chicago Loop Alliance, a business advocacy group, says the area is already well on its way: There are now more people living in the Loop than before the pandemic, reflecting growth of about 9 percent since 2020.). BARC Exit Poll Assembly Election 2022 Results Live, Read latest news and live updates of Exit poll result prediction (vidhan sabha) elections including election rallies by political leaders, photos, voting, BJP Leads & SP is Biggest Challenger in Latest Himachal Pradesh BARC Survey, and many more at News18.com CHICAGO Mayor Lori Lightfoot faces eight challengers in a fierce mayoral election and risks being ousted from City Hall after one term. (Vance wins in 57.4% of the simulations). For instance, in 1990, when George H.W. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. Read the analysis ($) Use this Map Inside Elections 2022 House Ratings Tripura Election Results 2022: The counting of votes is underway for Tripura's 60 legislative assembly seats and early trends have begun to emerge on Thursday. Steve Shepard,Politico's chief polling analyst, says voters should anticipate the party in the White House losing some ground: "The first midterm election is historically a bear for the president's party, and this year is expected to be no different," he writes. 2022 U.S. election predictions for Senate and House Congressional elections. Last updated Nov. 6, 2022, 9:19 p.m. PST The. The presidents party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election. ", Cook says the outcome of the upcoming elections is an "open question." Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. Whats your best takeaway for how 2022 shakes out at this point, given what weve talked about so far? After all, the times when the presidents party avoided losing much ground in the House or even gained a little came when the incumbent president was very popular. Assuming none wins an outright majority on Tuesday, the top two finishers in the race will advance to a runoff on April 4. Who those candidates turn out to be may offer a glimpse into the direction of urban politics in post-pandemic America. The newly-formed party, TIPRA Motha, founded by former royal Pradyot Kishore Mankiya Debbarma, is expected to gather 9-16 seats from the tribal areas with a concentrated 20 per cent of the vote share. Now, because only one-third of the Senate is up every two years, its not a truly national election the way the House is, so the story there is more complicated. Out of these eight, four joined TIPRA, three joined Congress, and one joined the Trinamool Congress. And while its true that Democrats have made gains with these voters in recent elections, I think its overstating things to say that will turn midterms into Democratic-friendly environments. The Simpsons. [37] Several state BJP leaders expressed unhappiness over the remarks and felt that it would not help the party cause. The House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80% of the variance in seat swing. alex: Im less clear on Republicans prospects for taking back the Senate, but I am more inclined to say Democrats can hold onto their narrow majority there. One of the most highly watched and dissected and forecastedbattles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. In line with these predictions, the ZeeNews-Matrize exit poll also forecasted that the BJP and its ally would win 29-36 seats in Tripura. The overturning of Roe also has been helping Democrats, but doesn't seem to have overcome voters' concerns about inflation. Because of the large impact of seat exposure in Senate elections, even a small advantage on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the upper chamber. Bleu, meanwhile, harkened back to the Democrats' performance in special elections over the summer as a bright light in their favor. Lets start big picture. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. Republicans lost 40 seats in the House in 2018, while Democrats dropped 62 seats in 2010. Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times. 2022 Election (348) But there is still plenty of time for the national environment to change. Ms. Lightfoot has crisscrossed Chicago telling voters that crime is down in the city and that her focus on the issue is yielding results: Homicides dropped in 2022 after rising in the two previous years. ", "South First poll predicts Congress will emerge as single-largest party in tight fight in Karnataka", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2023_Karnataka_Legislative_Assembly_election&oldid=1142846958, This page was last edited on 4 March 2023, at 18:08. All rights reserved. But perhaps we've been looking in the wrong place. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. Hearst Magazine Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved. For additional races, our model predictions and simulation results are below. The transcript below has been lightly edited. You can use the city's "Ward Finder" tool here. And right now, those indicators point to a neutral or slightly Democratic-leaning environment. help Democrats minimize their losses in the House. While it's still unknown who will win, there are some predictions that have been made. [45], In September 2022, the Congress set up QR codes of "PayCM" in many parts of Bengaluru. The Economist predicts that Democrats will keep the Senate and Republicans will gain a slight majority in the House.. 36 governor seats contested in 2022 There are 28 Republican and 22 Democratic governors. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. The counting of votes is underway for Tripura's 60 legislative assembly seats. US midterms 2022 Results Senate House Democrats retain control of the Senate Republican hopes of picking up seats in Arizona and Nevada fall short Last updated on November 17th 2022 at 6:30 am. ", The Cook Political Report analystCharlie Cookthinks we shouldn't be too hasty to call the races. And when Oregon and New York break for the @GOP on crime, something big is about to happen. [8], The Indian National Congress made allegations that an NGO in Bengaluru had amassed voter personal data, including caste, age, gender, work and education information, Aadhar cards, phone numbers, and more. While its hard to determine whether these bills will have some sort of partisan impact, its also very possible that young voters and voters of color have a bigger incentive to turn out to vote because of these bills. But at a time when public safety is the No. To learn more about our methodology, click here. Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. And because Democrats fell short of their 2020. But what is eerie is that this episode, airing in 2000, predicted that she would succeed President Donald Trump, whose fictional term as President seems as disastrous as his actual term. Visit our corporate site at https://futureplc.comThe Week is a registered trade mark. Future US LLC, 10th floor, 1100 13th Street NW, Washington, DC 20005. In this article, I use generic ballot polls to construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. More Dark Mode. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. In the 2010 election cycle (which, of course, was a great one for Republicans), Republicans didnt take the lead in generic-ballot polling until December 2009. sarah: But uh the generic ballot polls were really off in 2020. Democrats also hold an array of seats that wont be easy to defend, such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. In the letter, he alleged that contractors were being forced to pay a 40% commission to officials at the BJP government, cutting across departments, for projects. midterm elections (8). As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. So its possible Democrats could find gains in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, or, if things really go their way, perhaps a state that Biden only lost narrowly like Florida or North Carolina. Democrats are hoping to maintain their narrow control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. And President . Table 1 shows that the presidents party has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterm elections since World War II and Senate seats in 13 of 19. Published November 7, 2022 2:12am EST Political experts issue midterm election predictions, most conclude GOP will take House and Senate is toss-up Fox News Power Rankings predicts. Our average gave Democrats an 8.7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8.6 points. 2022 Governors Elections (39) Incumbent Republican U.S. senator John Kennedy was first elected in 2016. 2022 Election Forecast: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Advertisement We rated every race in play in 2022. The table below the map lists the governors of all 50 states, tabbed by the next election year. [47], A 10-point platform for the coastal region has been released by the Karnataka Congress in advance of the Assembly elections. Its still early and far too easy to prescribe election narratives that arent grounded in anything, but one gambit the Republican Party seems to be making at this point is that attacking the Democratic Party for being too progressive or woke will help them win. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. Additionally, a total of 10 contenders are vying for the 48th ward seat of Ald. One additional factor that is not included in the House forecast is the impact of redistricting, which will take place this cycle based on the results of the 2020 census. [50], 2023 Karnataka Legislative Assembly election, Learn how and when to remove this template message, CHIEF ELECTORAL OFFICER KARNATAKA, Government of Karnataka, "Karnataka highlights: H.D. This is not surprising given the much smaller number of Senate seats contested in each election and the larger potential impact of local factors such as candidate quality and fundraising. Richard Branson's trip to space is the latest in a long line of Simpsons predictions. Over the past several weeks, Democrats and Republicans have crisscrossed their electoral districts and regions, makingclosing campaign arguments to drum up voter enthusiasm. Where Republicans Have Made It Harder To Vote (So Far) Read more. House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. "If the recent polls are right and they may not be Republicans will almost certainly take the House. The generic ballot a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. Spoiler alert? nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): What they said! Nov. 6, 2022 The turbulent midterm campaign rolled through its final weekend on Sunday as voters buffeted by record inflation, worries about their personal safety and fears about the. Below is a look at some of their greatest hits. Despite their extremely narrow majorities, the forecasts in Table 3 show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of keeping control of both chambers in the midterm elections if they maintain at least a narrow lead on the generic ballot. President Biden's approval numbers posted every weekday, Assessing the Impact of Absentee Voting on Turnout and Democratic Vote Margin in 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms By Alan I. Abramowitz, Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections By Alan I. Abramowitz, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year, 61% Believe Feds Helped Incite Capitol Riot, Not Woke Yet? And because Democrats fell short of their 2020 expectations in state legislative races, Republicans have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps that are much more clearly in their favor. Americas cities increasingly face similar problems, particularly worries about crime and hangovers from the pandemic. Mr. Johnson has gained momentum in the last several weeks, polls suggest, as progressive voters who are unwilling to give Ms. Lightfoot another chance have searched for an alternative. FiveThirtyEight says that Republicans have a 54 percent chance of winning both chambers of Congress, compared to Democrats with a 15 percent chance. Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez was a stunning winner in the 2022 midterms. They've all taken their shots (and subsequent misses) at predicting what is to come in our lifetimes. Oct. 28, 2022, at 9:52 AM ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER With less than two weeks until Election Day, Republicans now have a 48 percent chance of taking the Senate, according to. In fact, a recent study from Yale political scientists Micah English and Josh Kalla found that highlighting the benefits of progressive policies for racial minorities actually decreases support for them overall, and this was especially true for white respondents. In contrast, Democrats' brief momentum seems to be fizzling out. That said, I think Democrats might find some success campaigning on Bidens accomplishments from his first 100 days: the vaccine rollout and the coronavirus stimulus funding, specifically. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. [17], In August 2022, two associations representing 13,000 schools in Karnataka wrote to Prime Minister Narendra Modi accusing the Basavaraj Bommai-led BJP government of corruption. As former FiveThirtyEighter Harry Enten argued back in April, we might read Democrats current lead in the generic ballot as a slight GOP advantage, given how much polls underestimated Republicans in 2020. nrakich: Yeah, Sarah, I think its fair to mentally subtract a few points from Democrats on the generic ballot polls. When a dragon rises up and burns down the entire village, it looked an awful lot like the big, chaotic conclusion to the HBO series' final season. The Simpsons: Future President Lisa Simpson, The Simpsons - Gunter & Ernst & the White Tiger Anastasia, The Simpsons future predictions 1995 season 6. Yediyurappa submits resignation to Governor", "Basavaraj Bommai sworn in as the new Chief Minister of Karnataka", "Karnataka: Ahead Of Assembly Election, BJP Leader HD Thammaiah And His Supporters Join Congress", https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/karnataka/final-electoral-rolls-have-505-crore-voters-in-state/article66342516.ece, "Collection of personal details and deletion of lakhs of voters What is the voters' data theft controversy in Bengaluru? I might give the GOP a very slight edge there, but its very much up for grabs. All thats to say, Democrats may really need to go all-in defending just two seats: Georgia (Sen. Raphael Warnocks seat) and Arizona (Sen. Mark Kellys seat). Wise are those who prepare via an animated TV series. He has also gained support from Democrats who voted for Ms. Lightfoot in 2019 but are now fed up over crime and are willing to vote for a more conservative candidate. The average seat loss has been almost 27 seats in the House and between three and four seats in the Senate. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. Well, The Simpsons predicted all of this in its 1995-1996 seasons. Will 2022 Be A Good Year For Republicans? alex: And at this point, Democrats seem to be more excited than Republicans about voting in the midterms, per Morning Consult. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. People have been trying to predict the future for as long as we've been around as a speciesNostradamus, the Mayans, Miss Cleo (may she rest in peace). ", Political commentator Frank Luntz argues in a tweetthat Republicans' choice to focus on the economy over President Biden's closing warnings about the fragility of democracy is "a big GOP advantage." Remember, the House experienced a blue wave in 2018, but the Senate actually got redder. Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. v. t. e. The 2022 United States Senate election in Louisiana was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Louisiana. "Polls in key Senate races show more Americans want Republicans to take control of the Senate than are voting for their state's Republican Senate candidate. One reason the GOP gained seats in 2018 was because it was able to pick off Democrats in red states like Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota. For many voters, it may be coming too late. ", "Explained | What is the Karnataka voter data theft case? Their April poll found that 81 percent of Democrats were at least somewhat enthusiastic about voting in the 2022 midterms, compared to 72 percent of Republicans. [16] Eshwarappa had to resign as cabinet minister following the incident. Use FaceTime lately? CNN's Election Center uses pre-election race ratings for all 435 House seats by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, which provides nonpartisan analysis of campaigns for Senate, House. One thing is for sure, though whichever party wins the Senate will have only a narrow majority, so I think were stuck in this era of moderates like Sens. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. People called out the weird Trump prediction back during his successful election run in 2016, but then the whole thing just doubled down when Kamala Harris appeared in what seems to be a replica of Lisa's outfit just days after being elected Vice President.

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2022 election predictions